Canada’s U.S. travel boycott is still going strong. The number of Canadians returning from the U.S. via vehicle dropped sharply from January to August 2025 by almost 33% from the same period in 2024, according to data from Statistics Canada. Those returning by air similarly declined by 17% in the first eight months of this year. That downward trend continued into its tenth month. Per the latest estimates, Canada’s travel boycott has so far cost $5.7 billion, prompting some states to act: one demanded an apology from President Trump, some begged for Canadians’ return, and others outright gave up on Canada for now.
However, one type of Canadian traveler remains loyal to warm-winter states like Florida, Texas, California, and Arizona: snowbirds. In fact, many snowbirds are booking U.S. travel earlier than ever and paying a 70% premium for the pleasure. While this is particularly true for Florida, Arizona is likewise seeing similar snowbird trends.
Here’s what the numbers say, what it means for the state, and why Canadians are (and aren’t) flocking to Arizona this winter. Interestingly, some Canadians are pretty quiet about the truths behind some of those reasons, according to experts.
Why Some Canadian Snowbirds Are Staying Loyal To Arizona In Spite Of A Tourism Decline – And How The State Benefits
Canada is an important player in Arizona’s tourism and economy; much like Florida, the state is one of the biggest markets for Canadian snowbirds. And, following in Florida’s footsteps, Arizona is seeing similar Canadian travel trends. Even though more Canadian tourists are staying away, snowbirds are still heading south.
TheTravel spoke to Glenn Williamson, the founder and CEO of the Canada Arizona Business Council, who predicts continued Canadian snowbird visitation to Arizona alongside the drop in tourists.
“I anticipate a 20% drop in tourism from approx 900K to 720K and very little drop in snowbird activity,” Glenn Williamson told TheTravel.
The reasons for snowbirds’ boycott-ignoring tendencies are perhaps more fascinating than the numbers. Among the explanations why snowbirds are still flocking to sunny states like Arizona is their perceptions and attitudes toward the U.S., coupled with an indifference to the political and border tensions sparked by the Trump administration. In truth, feedback from Canadians traveling to the States is actually more positive than what many reports indicate, especially surveys that questioned snowbirds.
One survey by the Angus Reid Institute found that 85% of Canadians reported a “good” experience at the U.S. border, which was no different from the last time the same poll was conducted in 2017 and 2023. Meanwhile, a poll by Snowbird Advisor recently discovered that a large majority of Canadian snowbirds still plan to visit the U.S. this winter despite a significant fall in Canadian tourists.
Granted, overall snowbird numbers are expected to drop (as explained in the video above by CTV News), but Snowbird Advisor president Stephen Fine revealed that 70% of the 4,000 Canadians surveyed are still planning a trip to the U.S., and they’re not letting political fisticuffs get in the way of their sunny winters in the south. In reality, the average Canadian snowbird is older and tends to align with conservative political values anyway. “People don’t like to talk about it, but the majority of Canadian snowbirds would be Republican,” Williamson told TheTravel. So, a bit of Trumping around isn’t exactly doing much to repel them.
Stephen Fine also told The Logic that “Snowbirds are more tied to the U.S. than other travelers” – which keeps them flying south. Many are tethered to their U.S. investments, which include communities they’ve established themselves in over years of winters gone by – but it also means real estate. Although many Canadian snowbirds are selling their U.S. homes, plenty aren’t, and that keeps them coming; they’re not going to let hive-mind politics get in the way of using and enjoying their second homes in the States.
Concurrently, Glenn Williamson discussed one of the less tasteful reasons Canadian snowbirds are reluctant to sell their American real estate: Canada slaps them with high capital gains tax. That reluctance to sell brings another knock-on impact that states like Arizona reap the rewards from; younger snowbirds will also keep coming alongside the older generations.
“You get another younger generation that is going to use their parents’ house, so they don’t liquidate it, because if you’re a Canadian and you liquidate a house in the United States, the capital gains from Canada are horrific. So selling your house is a major loss of money. Turning it into whatever you want to turn it into, and having your kids or your friends go use it becomes something of interest,” Williamson told TheTravel.
Ultimately, this quietly positive outlook is great for states like Arizona suffering from a dip in Canadian tourists, but they do have a great deal more to lose if snowbirds stop showing up.
How Many Snowbirds Visit Arizona – And What They’re Worth To The State
Generally, anyone who visits for 31 days or more is a snowbird. Based on that criterion, around 100,000 snowbirds visit Arizona for the winter. There are also approximately 40,000 Canadian expats who live in Arizona full-time, according to census data. And they bring in a lot of dollars for the state.
The Canada Arizona Business Council estimates that Canadian snowbirds inject $1.4 billion into Arizona annually – and that’s on top of the approximate $1 billion from tourists. “We [get] about a hundred thousand Canadian snowbirds [in Arizona], and they spend about $1.4 billion here. And that does not include their houses, their cars, and all the stuff that would come with that,” Glenn Williamson told TheTravel.
Moreover, that dollar total is completely separate from the economic impact of overnight tourists, who are classed as anyone who visits for 30 days or less. The $1.4 billion figure is a rough estimate, however, because no official government body actually counts snowbirds in the U.S., let alone Arizona, so the dollar value snowbirds bring could be even higher.
“They don’t count [snowbirds]. They don’t count anything beyond 30 days,” Williamson told TheTravel, while pointing out that “it’s beyond” him why snowbirds aren’t counted, since they bring in substantial amounts of money for the U.S. – money that’s now more important than ever following Arizona’s tourism decline. Looking at the reasons for that decline, however, it may take more than wishful thinking to win them back. Although some people feel those reasons aren’t quite what they seem.
Why Canadians Are Avoiding U.S. States Like Arizona, Even If Snowbirds Are Steady (And Some Of Those Reasons Canadians Are Quiet About)
As discussed, many Canadian snowbirds maintain loyalty to states like Arizona because of their U.S. investments, indifference to or alignment with the American political climate, and positive attitudes toward their southern neighbor in general. But plenty in the tourist category are still staying away for the exact opposite reasons (and, according to those in the know, some reasons that boycotting Canadians would probably rather not admit to).
Starting with the known reasons, there’s politics. Market research firm Longwoods International’s study revealed that around 80% of Canadians who canceled plans to visit the U.S. cited economic policies and tariffs as factors. 71% cited political statements from U.S. leaders.
Unexpectedly, President Donald Trump’s “51st state” remarks about Canada, his tariff war, and the general negative view of the U.S. among Canadians have been blamed, in part, for the fall in tourism. On the other hand, unfavorable exchange rates are another major factor; Longwoods International revealed that about 45% of Canadians who canceled plans to travel to the U.S. did so due to the weak Canadian dollar.
Miles Zimbaluk, CEO of Canada to USA, a company that works with Canadians who plan to travel to or buy homes in Arizona, said this combination of Trump’s rhetoric and the weakened Canadian dollar has made Canadians feel “unwelcome” in the U.S.
“Canada is a proud country,” Zimbaluk said. “I don’t think they like the tone […] the way it’s been handled is extremely negative, especially coming from our closest ally,” he added, as reported by AZCentral.
Falling demand also coincided with tighter scrutiny at the U.S.-Canada border. In the spring, the U.S. government introduced new requirements for Canadians visiting for more than 30 days, who must now register with immigration authorities. Some Canadians also reported being fingerprinted and charged a $30 fee by U.S. Customs and Border Protection when trying to enter the U.S.
On top of border heat, Canada issued travel advisories regarding travel to the U.S. following policy changes by the Trump administration that may impact Canadians. For instance, on October 1, Canada warned LGBTQ+ travelers with gender-neutral “X” identifiers on their passports that they could face entry restrictions or be asked by authorities to provide sex or gender identity information.
However, in spite of all these reasons for Canada’s tourism boycott, some people in Arizona feel the Canadian reaction has been over the top – and particularly played up by the media. Moreover, experts suggest some Canadians are quiet about the real reasons many of them are skipping the U.S. this year.
Some People In Arizona Feel The Reality Of (And Reasons For) Canada’s Boycott Have Been Overinflated
In recent months, social media and the press have become no strangers to border drama; viral stories, images, and videos of spats between travelers and U.S.-Canada border officials have done their rounds. That said, modern-day TikTok culture, wherein everyone has a phone, starts filming at the sight of anything mildly outside their comfort zone, and shares it online, could be adding fuel to border tension fires that might not actually be on fire at all.
Glenn Williamson noted that, as a former diplomat for Canada, he’d previously spoken with U.S. border staff to see what all the fuss is about.
“I’ll chat with these [border officials] and have wonderful talks and I go, ‘so what the heck is going on?’ And they say, ‘Glenn, we have not done anything different than we did 10 or 20 years ago, but do you know what the difference is now? Cell phones and cameras.’”
Furthermore, Williamson told KJZZ Phoenix that “the talk is substantially worse than the reality” when referring to the border tensions and drop in tourism from Canada, and that “some of the media has taken advantage.” Williamson told TheTravel similarly when it comes to Canadians’ reactions to the Canada-U.S. political frenzy and the reasons for their consequential boycotts.
“We’re finding a very highly emotional response to what is going on. Go to a party in Quebec now, or even Toronto, and it’s, ‘oh, screw America. Oh, get them the hell out of here.’ The next morning, 10 of them are on a plane flying down [to Arizona], but they don’t tell their friends.”
Regarding President Trump’s 51st state remarks that ignited Canada’s travel boycott in early 2025, Williamson said, “boy oh boy, did it get everybody’s goat.” According to Williamson, though, there may be a less-talked-about truth here; many Canadians possibly used those comments as a conveniently timed and politically convenient scapegoat for their “travel boycott” (which, for many, may not actually be a boycott at all).
Williamson told TheTravel he predicted that Canadian tourism to the U.S. would’ve fallen this year anyway, particularly because of their economic struggles in recent years, which he partially attributed to weaker exchange rates and high taxes in Canada. “Probably, nobody wants to admit they can’t afford it,” Williamson said, with “it” referring to vacationing in the U.S.
In any case, regardless of the reactions and reasons behind the boycott, Arizona still wants to keep a grip on its Canadian snowbirds and tourists. They’re a key market for Arizona, contribute over a billion dollars to state coffers (likely double that and then some if snowbird estimates are included), and are valued members of the Arizonan community overall.
“We miss our Canadians. Not only are they part of our snowbird season, if you will, they’re also part of our visitation year over year. They flock to our resorts, our golf courses, but they also own homes and businesses here,” said Rachel Sacco, CEO of Experience Scottsdale.
Ultimately, Canadians are missed in Arizona, even if their shortfall this year might not be quite as dramatic as the press and even many Canadians themselves have made it out to be. Or is it? The numbers are pretty interesting – and they also suggest the U.S. government could benefit by figuring out a way to actually count snowbirds.
Canadian Tourism To Arizona Is Down In 2025 Despite Steadier Snowbird Predictions – And What This Means For The State
Reasons for the tourism decline aside, it’s time to talk numbers. Arizona receives around one million Canadian visitors per year. The state welcomed record numbers of Canadian visitors in the late 2010s, which peaked at 975,000 in 2018. The COVID-19 pandemic saw that fall to 257,400, but as Arizona recovered, airlines resumed pandemic-suspended routes between Phoenix and Canada.
The Arizona Office of Tourism’s most recent full data showed 852,200 Canadians visited in 2024, up by about 30,000 more than in 2023. But a loss this year could prove expensive for the state’s tourism-reliant businesses.
“Of course, any reduction in visitors to Arizona from Canada would be felt by our state, from the airlines to hotels to transportation to restaurants to supermarkets and attractions,” said Joshua Coddington, a spokesperson for the Arizona Office of Tourism (AOT).
Arizona welcomed 822,500 of those overnight visitors from Canada in 2023, who contributed around $775 million in visitor spending that year, according to Coddington with the Arizona Office of Tourism (and that’s a sizable revenue figure to lose if tourism drops). But, as mentioned, those visitors and spending figures don’t account for snowbirds; anyone who visits for 31 days or more is a snowbird.
Canadians who visit Arizona for 30 days or less are classed as “overnight” visitors.
For the following year, an AOT report showed that approximately 36% of Visa credit card spending in Arizona by international visitors in the first three months of 2024 came from Canadians, who, on average, spend about nine nights at their destination. Again, that’s a large chunk of its tourism economy at risk this year.
Full Canadian visitor data for 2025 isn’t available yet, but the national downfall in Canadian tourism to the U.S., including regional factors (such as fewer passengers on flights between Phoenix and Canada), hints that 2025 will end with far fewer tourists from Canada.
“International traffic is slowing compared to past gains,” said Sky Harbor spokesperson Greg Roybal, adding, “We continue to work with our airline partners as Canadian tourism and business travel is very important to our region.”
As noted earlier, Glenn Williamson at the Canada Arizona Business Council predicted a 20% drop in Canadian tourism this year, and air travel figures so far are more or less backing up that somewhat. Air Canada, WestJet, and Flair Airlines recorded fewer passengers on flights between Phoenix and Canada in the first nine months of this year. From January to September, Sky Harbor’s passenger traffic data shows that 645,305 passengers flew between Canada and Phoenix, a decrease from 672,960 during the same timeframe last year.
That data includes Air Canada, Flair, WestJet, and Porter Airlines, the latter of which launched its Phoenix-Toronto service in October 2024. The numbers also include the final two months of Lynx Air’s passenger data, whose Phoenix-Calgary operation ended in February last year.
Several other airlines with flights between the U.S. and Canada have also said they’re evaluating routes and adjusting where needed based on demand – so fewer air travel routes between Arizona and Canada is also a snowball effect of fallen tourism. Flair Airlines, for example, suspended its seasonal flights to Phoenix Sky Harbor after ending its winter season this year earlier than planned. That decision ceased its Calgary and Edmonton services on April 8 and ended its Vancouver route on April 22.
Still, despite slowed demand for air travel, some airlines are optimistic about a rebound.
“Canadians are not abandoning the U.S., but they are reducing their travel, and eventually, demand for U.S. travel will return,” Porter Airlines spokesperson Robyn van Teunenbroek said.
Porter also recently introduced two new seasonal routes between Phoenix and Canada, highlighting the positivity for the future of travel between Canada and Arizona. But is positivity alone enough to will Canadian tourists’ return to Arizona? 2026 is bound to be an interesting time that reveals the answer that’s worth billions of dollars for the state’s pockets.
20.5 million Canadians visited the United States in 2024, providing $20.5 billion in visitor spending and supporting 140,000 American jobs, according to the U.S. Travel Association, which also found that Canadian travel to the U.S. fell by nearly 20% in the first six months of 2025.
While snowbird visits seem a little steadier for now, the next few months will paint a clearer picture of the Canadian tourist landscape into next year. With Canadian snowbirds potentially worth around $1.4 billion for Arizona, and tourists roughly $1 billion on top, that’s quite a lot of dough on the line for one state to worry about.
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